When House of the Dragon, HBO’s big-budget prequel to Game of Thrones, premieres Sunday night, the future of the Targaryen family won’t be the only thing at stake.For HBO parent Warner Bros. Discovery, how House of the Dragon lands with audiences, in the U.S. and worldwide, could determine how far the studio is willing to commit to the World of Westeros universe.“It’s a big responsibility to take on,” says Ryan J. Condal, showrunner and co-creator, with George R.R. Martin, of House of the Dragon. “Because I feel like the success of this show will dictate how deep the exploration of this universe goes. I think there’s a lot of interest in seeing other corners of this world [but] I think all that will rely heavily on House of the Dragon doing what it needs to do commercially for HBO.”Warners has made it clear that it has no problem axing projects if they don’t meet the company’s performance standards. Since the merger with Discovery in April, the group has taken a $825 million write-down on content, chopping such projects J.J. Abrams’ sci-fi drama Demimonde and the already finished $90 million-plus superhero feature Batgirl, which was set to launch on HBO Max, in an attempt to find $3 billion in cost savings.After the studio canned Batgirl, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said it was developing a new 10-year plan for projects in its DC Universe. But no word has come yet on what Warners is planning with Westeros post-House of the Dragon.HBO initially put five pilot projects into development, even shooting one — Bloodmoon starring Naomi Watts, set thousands of years before the events of the original Game of Thrones — before finally putting all its chips on House of the Dragon. The series, which shot before the Warner-Discovery merger, has been set up as a standalone — “We weren’t consciously trying to launch the new Westeros universe, we didn’t seed anything in this show for other series,” notes House of the Dragon executive producer Sara Hess — but its performance could ultimately determine whether Warners greenlights multiple GOT spinoffs, or if the studio’s fantasy empire ends here.“As a fan, I think the [World of Westeros] universe is just as rich as the Marvel universe or the Star Wars universe, I think there are plenty of stories left to tell,” says Condal. “But we’re at the very beginning, whereas Marvel and Star Wars have decades of content and characters built up over time. It’s our job to establish that interest and explore the world a little bit more and get people intrigued to ask, ‘Where else can you go with within this world?'”The question is: What would success look like for House of the Dragon? The first episode of Game of Thrones premiered on HBO in 2011 to an audience of 2.2 million in the U.S. By 2019 and the show’s season eight finale, viewership had swelled to nearly 20 million. Few expect House of the Dragon to start that high, particularly given the mixed audience and critical response to GOT‘s final season. The series will be hoping to kick off somewhere in the 6 to 10 million range, around where Game of Throne was mid-run.But if there is to be a future for House of the Dragon and the wider world of Westeros, the show needs to deliver out of the gate. This is all the more important as, unlike Game of Thrones, House of the Dragon will be rolling out globally simultaneously with its U.S. release. HBO and HBO Max are premiering the series in 61 countries within 24 hours of the U.S. bow, with HBO GO in Asia handling a further seven markets. HBO’s international broadcast partners, including Sky in the U.K., Italy and Germany, Crave in Canada, OCS in France, Binge/Foxtel in Australia, U-Next in Japan and Waave in Korea, are also going day-and-date with House of the Dragon and will fly, or fall, together.Condal says he doesn’t know “exactly what metrics” HBO is using to judge success for House of the Dragon, noting that with the show going out both on linear TV and via streaming, the numbers could be a combination of “viewership plus Netflix-style measurements like minutes watched.” In any case, when House of the Dragon premieres Sunday, it will be out of his hands.“[Co-showrunner] Miguel Sapochnik and I talked about this from the beginning. We said we can’t make this show defensively, we can’t be guessing what the studio wants us to be or what fans might want in three years time,” he says. “Things at HBO, at Warner, at Discovery have been changing so fast, we can only hold on to our idea. We have a creative vision and we’re going to execute it. This is a new show set in Westeros, but that has to stand on its own merits. Then, we’ll see what happens.”
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